The “Growth Trend” and CFD Trading

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Contents

The “Growth Trend” and CFD Trading

If you are relatively new to the world of trading, the “growth trend” represents the massive outperformance of the US technology sector since the 2008 financial crisis. The Nasdaq100 had built up an impressive rally, starting at around 1,000 at the end of 2007 and currently trading around 9,600 points. No one expected such an unprecedented market performance and today we would like to talk some of its particularities. At the same time, we will see how future opportunities could be exploited using CFDs.

Could the growth trend continue?

As long as the Federal Reserve stands ready to act with liquidity, market participants seem to be willing to invest further into the technological sector, even though stocks are extremely expensive at the present time. Although the situation is similar to what we saw during the dot.com bubble, there is no downside fear at the present time, a real reason for worry among traditional value investors.

Right now, the Fed is buying $60 billion worth of treasuries per month and at the same time, it conducts overnight and term repo operations. According to a BIS report published at the end of 2020, hedge funds use sponsored repo in order to increase their exposure on stocks. At the same time, we must not forget that all major tech companies continue to conduct large buyback operations, meaning the upside pressure on valuations continues.

Signs of weakness

The exuberance is poised to end at some point and even though it might take a long time, traders should learn how to keep risk under control because the trend could gradually become unstable. That will mean larger corrective moves, high volatility, due to slowing economic activity in the United States and on a global scale in an accentuated manner.

Until then, CFD trading represents a viable option to profit from short-term market movements. We will have volatility and where there is volatility, we have the potential to generate returns. So far, each minor pullback had been followed by a short squeeze, as the market continues to be complacent.

However, risks to the downside are expected to increase, given that the P/E on tech stocks had reached levels not seen since the beginning of the 2000’s. Any dampening event could trigger price discovery at least for a short period and then tech stocks will be under a question mark. As the price action shows right now, the trend looks poised to continue, but any bull market has an end, eventually.

An Introduction To CFDs

The contract for difference (CFD) offers European traders and investors an opportunity to profit from price movement without owning the underlying asset. It’s a relatively simple security calculated by the asset’s movement between trade entry and exit, computing only the price change without consideration of the asset’s underlying value.   This is accomplished through a contract between client and broker, and does not utilize any stock, forex, commodity or futures exchange. Trading CFDs offer several major advantages that have increased the instruments’ enormous popularity in the past decade.

How a CFD Works

If a stock has an ask price of $25.26 and the trader buys 100 shares, the cost of the transaction is $2,526 plus commission and fees. This trade requires at least $1,263 in free cash at a traditional broker in a 50% margin account, while a CFD broker formerly required just a 5% margin, or $126.30. A CFD trade will show a loss equal to the size of the spread at the time of the transaction so, if the spread is 5 cents, the stock needs to gain 5 cents for the position to hit the breakeven price. You’ll see a 5-cent gain if you owned the stock outright but would have paid a commission and incurred a larger capital outlay.

If the stock rallies to a bid price of $25.76 in a traditional broker account, it can be sold for a $50 gain or $50/$1263 = 3.95% profit. However, when the national exchange reaches this price, the CFD bid price may only be $25.74. The CFD profit will be lower because the trader must exit at the bid price and the spread is larger than on the regular market. In this example, the CFD trader earns an estimated $48 or $48/$126.30 = 38% return on investment. The CFD broker may also require the trader to buy at a higher initial price, $25.28 for example. Even so, the $46 to $48 earned on the CFD trade denotes a net profit, while the $50 profit from owning the stock outright doesn’t include commissions or other fees, putting more money in the CFD trader’s pocket.

What is a contract for difference?

A contract for difference (CFD) is a popular form of derivative trading. CFD trading enables you to speculate on the rising or falling prices of fast-moving global financial markets (or instruments) such as shares, indices, commodities, currencies and treasuries.

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CFD trading explained

Some of the benefits of CFD trading are that you can trade on margin, and you can go short (sell) if you think prices will go down or go long (buy) if you think prices will rise. CFDs are tax efficient in the UK, meaning there is no stamp duty to pay*. You can also use CFD trades to hedge an existing physical portfolio.

Introduction to CFD trading: how does CFD trading work?

With CFD trading, you don’t buy or sell the underlying asset (for example a physical share, currency pair or commodity). You buy or sell a number of units for a particular instrument depending on whether you think prices will go up or down. We offer CFDs on a wide range of global markets and our CFD instruments includes shares, treasuries, currency pairs, commodities and stock indices such as the UK 100, which aggregates the price movements of all the stocks listed on the FTSE 100.

For every point the price of the instrument moves in your favour, you gain multiples of the number of CFD units you have bought or sold. For every point the price moves against you, you will make a loss.

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What is margin and leverage?

CFDs are a leveraged product, which means that you only need to deposit a small percentage of the full value of the trade in order to open a position. This is called ‘trading on margin’ (or margin requirement). While trading on margin allows you to magnify your returns, your losses will also be magnified as they are based on the full value of the CFD position.

What are the costs of CFD trading?

Spread: When trading CFDs you must pay the spread, which is the difference between the buy and sell price. You enter a buy trade using the buy price quoted and exit using the sell price. The narrower the spread, the less the price needs to move in your favour before you start to make a profit, or if the price moves against you, a loss. We offer consistently competitive spreads.

Holding costs: at the end of each trading day (at 5pm New York time), any positions open in your account may be subject to a charge called a ‘holding cost’. The holding cost can be positive or negative depending on the direction of your position and the applicable holding rate.

Market data fees: to trade or view our price data for share CFDs, you must activate the relevant market data subscription for which a fee will be charged. View our market data fees

Commission (only applicable for shares): you must also pay a separate commission charge when you trade share CFDs. Commission on UK-based shares on our CFD platform starts from 0.10% of the full exposure of the position, and there is a minimum commission charge of £9. View the examples below to see how to calculate commissions on share CFDs.

Please note: CFD trades incur a commission charge when the trade is opened as well as when it is closed. The above calculation can be applied for a closing trade; the only difference is that you use the exit price rather than the entry price.

What instruments can I trade?

When you trade CFDs with us, you can take a position on over 10,000 CFD instruments. Our spreads start from 0.7 points on forex pairs including EUR/USD and AUD/USD. You can also trade the UK 100 and Germany 30 from 1 point and Gold from 0.3 points. See our range of markets

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Example of a CFD trade

Buying a company share in a rising market (going long)

In this example, UK Company ABC is trading at 98 / 100 (where 98pence is the sell price and 100pence is the buy price). The spread is 2.

You think the company’s price is going to go up so you decide to open a long position by buying 10,000 CFDs, or ‘units’ at 100 pence. A separate commission charge of £10 would be applied when you open the trade, as 0.10% of the trade size is £10 (10,000 units x 100p = £10,000 x 0.10%).

Company ABC has a margin rate of 3%, which means you only have to deposit 3% of the total value of the trade as position margin. Therefore, in this example your position margin will be £300 (10,000 units x 100p = £10,000 x 3%).

Remember that if the price moves against you, it’s possible to lose more than your margin of £300, as losses will be based on the full value of the position.

Outcome A: a profitable trade

Let’s assume your prediction was correct and the price rises over the next week to 110 / 112. You decide to close your buy trade by selling at 110 pence (the current sell price). Remember, commission is charged when you exit a trade too, so a charge of £11 would be applied when you close the trade, as 0.10% of the trade size is £11 (10,000 units x 110p = £11,000 x 0.10%).

The price has moved 10 pence in your favour, from 100 pence (the initial buy price or opening price) to 110 pence (the current sell price or closing price). Multiply this by the number of units you bought (10,000) to calculate your profit of £1000, then subtract the total commission charge (£10 at entry + £11 at exit = £21) which results in a total profit of £979.

Outcome B: a losing trade

Unfortunately, your prediction was wrong and the price of Company ABC drops over the next week to 93 / 95. You think the price is likely to continue dropping so, to limit your losses, you decide to sell at 93 pence (the current sell price) to close the trade. As commission is charged when you exit a trade too, a charge of £9.30 would apply, as 0.10% of the trade size is £9.30 (10,000 units x 93p = £9,300 x 0.10%).

The price has moved 7 pence against you, from 100 pence (the initial buy price) to 93 pence (the current sell price). Multiply this by the number of units you bought (10,000) to calculate your loss of £700, plus the total commission charge (£10 at entry + £9.30 at exit = £19.30) which results in a total loss of £719.30.

Short-selling CFDs in a falling market

CFD trading enables you to sell (short) an instrument if you believe it will fall in value, with the aim of profiting from the predicted downward price move. If your prediction turns out to be correct, you can buy the instrument back at a lower price to make a profit. If you are incorrect and the value rises, you will make a loss. This loss can exceed your deposits.

Hedging your physical portfolio with CFD trading

If you have already invested in an existing portfolio of physical shares with another broker and you think they may lose some of their value over the short term, you can hedge your physical shares using CFDs. By short selling the same shares as CFDs, you can try and make a profit from the short-term downtrend to offset any loss from your existing portfolio.

For example, say you hold £5000 worth of physical ABC Corp shares in your portfolio; you could hold a short position or short sell the equivalent value of ABC Corp with CFDs. Then, if ABC Corp’s share price falls in the underlying market, the loss in value of your physical share portfolio could potentially be offset by the profit made on your short selling CFD trade. You could then close out your CFD trade to secure your profit as the short-term downtrend comes to an end and the value of your physical shares starts to rise again.

Using CFDs to hedge physical share portfolios is a popular strategy for many investors, especially in volatile markets.

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